Machine learning for pore-water pressure time-series prediction: Application of recurrent neural networks     

Xin Wei  Lulu Zhang  Hao-Qing Yang  Limin Zhang  Yang-Ping Yao 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(1):453-467

Knowledge of pore-water pressure(PWP)variation is fundamental for slope stability.A precise prediction of PWP is difficult due to complex physical mechanisms and in situ natural variability.To explore the applicability and advantages of recurrent neural networks(RNNs)on PWP prediction,three variants of RNNs,i.e.,standard RNN,long short-term memory(LSTM)and gated recurrent unit(GRU)are adopted and compared with a traditional static artificial neural network(ANN),i.e.,multi-layer perceptron(MLP).Measurements of rainfall and PWP of representative piezometers from a fully instrumented natural slope in Hong Kong are used to establish the prediction models.The coefficient of determination(R^2)and root mean square error(RMSE)are used for model evaluations.The influence of input time series length on the model performance is investigated.The results reveal that MLP can provide acceptable performance but is not robust.The uncertainty bounds of RMSE of the MLP model range from 0.24 kPa to 1.12 k Pa for the selected two piezometers.The standard RNN can perform better but the robustness is slightly affected when there are significant time lags between PWP changes and rainfall.The GRU and LSTM models can provide more precise and robust predictions than the standard RNN.The effects of the hidden layer structure and the dropout technique are investigated.The single-layer GRU is accurate enough for PWP prediction,whereas a double-layer GRU brings extra time cost with little accuracy improvement.The dropout technique is essential to overfitting prevention and improvement of accuracy.  相似文献   

Uncertainty of the Linear Trend in the Zonal SST Gradient Across the Equatorial Pacific Since 1881     

Chan Zhang  Youmin Tang  Jun Ying  Junde Li 《大气与海洋》2019,57(1):61-72

The change in the zonal sea surface temperature gradient (ZSSTG) across the equatorial Pacific plays an important role in the global climate system. However, there has not yet been a consensual conclusion about the changing ZSSTG at either a short-term (from 20 to 90 years) or a long-term time scale (longer than 90 years) in the literature. In this study, the uncertainty of the trend in ZSSTG for different sub-periods since 1881 was examined using four interpolated datasets and four un-interpolated datasets. It was found that the trend in ZSSTG on the short-term time scale could be significantly influenced by internal variability such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. On the long-term time scale, the sign of the ZSSTG trend depends on the dataset used. In particular, it was not possible to draw a uniform conclusion about the secular trends in ZSSTG in recent history, given the high sensitivity of the ZSSTG trends to the period, dataset, and regions used to calculate the trends. Our results imply that it may not be possible to detect the response of ZSSTG to global warming until a longer data record becomes available in the future.  相似文献   

定量研究雅安地形坡向坡度对降水分布的影响     

周学云  高文良  吴亚平  钱正迪  邱双 《气象科学》2019,39(3):322-335

利用四川省雅安市30 m分辨率基础高程数据,提取栅格的坡向和坡度参数,将雅安307个区域自动站在2017年汛期(6—9月)共50次的降水天气个例,分为16次大尺度降水和34次中小尺度降水,使用对应时次的欧洲中心细网格0.25°×0.25°再分析风场资料,根据不同的站点地形高度将风场合成平均风场,和各站点地形的坡向和坡度计算出其动力抬升作用,同时使用当天日照和天文太阳辐射值来计算地形的热力抬升作用,与对应降水过程的降水分布进行多元线性回归,根据回归的标准系数的大小确定各自变量对降水分布的影响,得出以下结论:(1)中小尺度降水中,地形的热力抬升作用对降水分布的影响作用最大,其次是海拔高度,地形的动力抬升作用在三者中对降水分布的影响最小;(2)在大尺度降水中刚好相反,地形的动力抬升对降水的分布影响作用最大,海拔次之,热力抬升作用在三者中影响作用最小;(3)日降水量最大值的站点海拔高度基本位于1 000 m左右,与抬升凝结高度对应较好;(4)从长期的统计来看,地形的动力作用和地表的植被情况对降水分布的影响最大。在实际预报工作用,根据不同的降水类型,关注不同的动力和热力作用对于判断降水分布大值区的位置有较好的参考作用。  相似文献   

喀拉海和巴伦支海海冰对中高纬异常纬向环流暨中国东部重霾天气形成的作用          下载免费PDF全文

陈诚  牛涛  陆尔 《大气科学学报》2019,42(2):267-279

采用1981年1月—2017年2月国家气象信息中心雾、霾数据集资料、同期NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及哈德来中心的海冰资料,分析了秋冬季喀拉海和巴伦支海海冰变化与东亚冬季风暨中国东部冬季雾和霾日数变化特征之间的关系。研究结果表明,喀拉海和巴伦支海海冰对亚洲区中高纬纬向环流有重要影响,秋季海冰异常偏少是冬季亚洲区中高纬异常纬向环流形成的诱因之一。该地区秋季海冰偏少年,冬季亚洲中高纬地区纬向环流异常偏强,东亚大槽偏弱,影响我国东部地区的东亚冬季风减弱,这为大气污染物在水平方向上的聚集提供了有利条件,同时在海冰偏少年,对流层从中层向下均为正温度距平,与地表温差减小,不利于对流发展,使得大气的状况变得更加稳定,不利于大气污染物在垂直方向上的扩散,水平和垂直方向上的共同作用导致中国东部地区易发生霾天气过程。虽然喀拉海和巴伦支海海冰是影响中国东部地区冬季霾过程发生的重要因子之一,但其对冬季中国东部雾天气发生日数多寡的影响并不显著。亚洲区纬向环流指数相比经向环流指数更能反映中国东部地区冬季雾-霾日数的变化,冬季亚洲中高纬纬向环流越强,中国东部地区雾-霾日数越多。  相似文献   

热带气旋西行造成的远距离降雨特征分析          下载免费PDF全文

姜艳 《高原山地气象研究》2019,39(1):20-25

2018年7月27~28日凉山州地区出现了持续性的强降水天气过程,本文运用水平分辨率为1°×1°的NECP6小时再分析资料、新型监测资料及常规观测资料进行分析。发现此次过程不同于常规的降水过程,环流背景上受副高外围的东南气流和热带气旋形成的东风波倒槽共同作用形成的急流轴影响,为降水地提供充足的水汽和能量补充,从而形势上形成了热带气旋远距离降水,同时副热带高压的稳定维持也阻挡了高原上的低值系统快速东移,使得降水机制长时间停滞,对降水地造成影响。  相似文献   

INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY OF QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION OF STRATOSPHERIC ZONAL WIND     

韩浦城  简茂球  林晓霞 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2019,25(2):162-170

This study investigates the interdecadal variability of Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) based on the sounding data in the stratosphere, ERA-40 and ERA-interim reanalysis data in the past 62 years. The QBO periodicity experiences a significant interdecadal variability; the longer (shorter) the mean period, the smaller (larger) the amplitude of variation is. The QBO amplitude varies in a cycle around 10 to 15 years and in an out-of-phase correlation with the period. In addition, there is an increasing trend of the QBO amplitude in 30 to 10 hPa, while a little declining trend in 70 to 40 hPa. The deviation of the QBO zonal wind extremum centers from the equator also shows interdecadal variability. The deviation location of the easterly core is generally in the reverse side to the westerly core, which means that when the easterly core is on one side of a hemisphere, the westerly core is on the other side.  相似文献   

山东省沂水县农村非农化程度差异及驱动力   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

张佰林  张凤荣  曲宝德  李灿  陈军伟 《地理学报》2015,70(6)

非农化是中国快速工业化、城镇化进程中农村演变的重要趋势,呈现出明显的空间异质性。以山东省沂水县为例,选取16个典型样点村,根据农户就业地域空间差异,将农户就业划分为县域外非农就业、县域非农就业、县域非农兼业和农业生产4类,在此基础上,选取非农就业劳动力、收入和时间比例3个指标研究县域农村非农化程度差异及驱动力。结果表明,沂水县农村非农化程度介于37.54%~90.65%,非农化现象普遍。县域农村非农化程度的总体分布特征为:近郊村最高;随着与城镇的临近,粮食作物主导村提高、经济作物主导村降低;同一地形区内,粮食作物主导村高于经济作物主导村。农村非农分化趋势明显。驱动力研究表明,受县域城镇经济实力、农村到城镇的可达性,农业收益及劳动需求量等的综合影响,不同类型农村劳动力就业结构存在差异,进而导致县域农村非农化程度的差异。研究认为,当前农村非农化普遍,且非农分化明显。政府应根据不同类型农村非农化程度差异的内容及驱动因素,实施差别化的农村发展管理措施。  相似文献   

A range of fault slip styles on progressively misoriented planes during flexural-slip folding,Cape Fold Belt,South Africa     

《Journal of Structural Geology》2015

Flexural slip folds are distinctive of mixed continuous-discontinuous deformation in the upper crust, as folding is accommodated by continuous bending of layers and localized, discontinuous slip along layer interfaces. The mechanism of localized, layer-parallel slip and the stress and fluid pressure conditions at which flexural slip occurs are therefore distinctive of shear localization during distributed deformation. In the Prince Albert Formation mudstone sequence of the Karoo Basin, the foreland basin to the Cape Fold Belt, folds are well developed and associated with incrementally developed bedding-parallel quartz veins with slickenfibers oriented perpendicular to fold hinge lines, locally cross-cutting axial planar cleavage, and showing hanging wall motion toward the fold hinge. Bedding-parallel slickenfiber-coated veins dip at angles from 18° to 83°, implying that late increments of bedding-parallel shear occurred along unfavorably oriented planes. The local presence of tensile veins, in mutually cross-cutting relationship with bedding-parallel, slickenfiber-coated veins, indicate local fluid pressures in excess of the least compressive stress.Slickenfiber vein microstructures include a range of quartz morphologies, dominantly blocky to elongate-blocky, but in places euhedral to subhedral; the veins are commonly laminated, with layers of quartz separated by bedding-parallel slip surfaces characterized by a quartz-phyllosilicate cataclasite. Crack-seal bands imply incremental slickenfiber growth, in increments from tens of micrometers to a few millimeters, in some places, whereas other vein layers lack evidence for incremental growth and likely formed in single slip events. Single slip events, however, also involved quartz growth into open space, and are inferred to have formed by stick-slip faulting. Overall, therefore, flexural slip in this location involved bedding-parallel faulting, along progressively misoriented weak planes, with a range of slip increments.  相似文献   

方程误差系统的多新息辨识方法     

丁锋 《南京气象学院学报》2015,7(5):385-407

多新息方法可以用于线性系统和非线性系统的自适应滤波、参数估计、自校正控制、自适应故障检测与诊断等.线性系统包括两种基本类型:方程误差类系统和输出误差类系统.本文将多新息辨识应用到方程误差滑动平均(EEMA)系统(即CARMA系统),研究多新息增广随机梯度算法和多新息增广最小二乘算法,应用到方程误差自回归滑动平均(EEARMA)系统(即CARARMA系统),提出基于分解的多新息广义增广随机梯度算法和基于分解的多新息广义增广最小二乘算法,以及基于滤波的多新息广义增广随机梯度算法和基于滤波的多新息广义增广最小二乘算法.  相似文献   

THE EFFECTS OF THE PLATEAU''S TOPOGRAPHIC GRADIENT ON ROSSBY WAVES AND ITS NUMERICAL SIMULATION     

何钰  李国平 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(4):337-351

By using barotropic model equations, this article analyzed the characteristics of Rossby waves, the propagation features of wave energy and the influence of dynamic and thermal effects of the Tibetan Plateau on Rossby waves, and the focus is on discussing the plateau's topographic gradient effects on atmospheric Rossby waves. Then based on the WRF3.2 and the NCEP/NCAR FNL reanalysis data, we devised comparative tests of changing the plateau's topographic gradient and simulated a process of persistent heavy rain that happened in May 2010 in South China. The results are shown as follows. The Tibetan Plateau’s topography is conducive to the formation of atmospheric Rossby waves. while the plateau's terrain, its friction and heating effects can all make the atmospheric Rossby waves develop into the planetary waves; The effects of plateau's north and south slopes on the Rossby wave’ phase velocity is opposite, and when the slope reached a certain value can the quasi-steady normal fluctuations be generated; Simultaneously, due to the plateau's topographic gradient, descending motion appears at the west side of the plateau while ascending motion appears at the east side, and the vertical movement increased with the amplification of topographic gradients. The plateau's topographic gradient also obviously amplified the precipitation in South China, and the rainfall area increased with the amplification of topographic gradients and gradually moved from south to north and from west to east, which is conducive to the occurrence and development of convective activities in the downstream areas of the Tibetan Plateau; Moreover, for the plateau’s dynamic and thermal effects, the Rossby wave’ propagation shows upstream effects of energy dispersion, so the plateau can then affect the weather in downstream areas. Moreover, the wave group velocity increased with the degree of topographic slope.  相似文献